当前国内资本外流的原因分析与应对研究

滨江学院

本科生毕业论文(设计)

题 目当前国内资本外流的原因分析与应对研究

学生姓名 杜佳维

学 号 20122312152

系 别 会计系

专 业 会计

指导教师 丁江贤

二Ｏ一六 年 五 月 十 日

目 录

1引言 ..................................................... 3

1.1选题背景和意义 ......................................................... 3 1.2研究内容 ............................................................... 3 1.3文献综述 ............................................................... 3 1.4本文研究方法 ........................................................... 4

2中国境内资本外流的原因分析 ............................... 4

2.1外因 ................................................................... 5

2.1.1美元资产持续性走强 .................................................................................................. 5 2.1.2欧州债务危机的演进及欧元资产的可抄底 .............................................................. 5 2.1.3国际资本套利动机 ...................................................................................................... 5 2.2内因 ....................................................................................................................................... 5

2.2.1藏汇于民...................................................................................................................... 6 2.2.2债务去杠杆化 .............................................................................................................. 6 2.2.3人民币贬值 .................................................................................................................. 6 2.2.4国内经济环境的改变 .................................................................................................. 6 2.2.5人民币国际化进程 ...................................................................................................... 7 2.2.6经济复苏差距收窄 ...................................................................................................... 7 2.2.7放松资本管制 .............................................................................................................. 7 2.2.8转移非法所得 .............................................................................................................. 7

3中国境内资本外流的主要渠道 ............................... 7

3.1正规渠道 ............................................................... 8

3.1.1对外直接投资 .............................................................................................................. 8 3.1.2境内投资主体对境外企业进行的外汇放款 .............................................................. 8 3.1.3偿还外债...................................................................................................................... 8 3.1.4境外上市股权回购，增持汇出与A股减持汇出 ..................................................... 8 3.1.5外国投资者的有序撤资及外商投资企业的利润汇出 .............................................. 8 3.2非正规渠道 ........................................................................................................................... 8

3.2.1地下钱庄...................................................................................................................... 8 3.2.2改变资金交易性质转移资产 ...................................................................................... 8 3.2.3对外贸易转移资金 ...................................................................................................... 9

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3.2.4外资银行“内存外贷”，“内保外贷” .................................................................. 9 3.2.5偷渡现金...................................................................................................................... 9 3.2.6用虚开发票金额的方式将资金转移出境和为从未发生过的服务贸易付款 .......... 9 3.2.7拆分金额汇款 .............................................................................................................. 9

4案例分析-俄罗斯资本外流 .................................. 9

4.1俄罗斯经济危机介绍及背景 ............................................... 9 4.2原因分析 ............................................................... 9

4.2.1乌克兰危机及欧美经济制裁 ...................................................................................... 9 4.2.2原油，天然气等能源及其他大宗商品价格的暴跌 ................................................ 10 4.2.3货币大幅贬值所引起的货币危机，以及市场对卢布信心的减弱 ........................ 10 4.2.4对外债的过度依赖和为了偿还巨额外债 ................................................................ 10 4.2.5经济体制僵化，经济结构单一，改革不力 ............................................................ 10 4.2.6投资者对俄经济前景的信心不足 ............................................................................ 11 4.2.7非法向境外转移资产，洗钱 .................................................................................... 11 4.2.8法律体系不健全以及对跨境资金流动监控不力 .................................................... 11

5应对研究 ................................................ 11

5.1 建立健全跨境资本逆流监控预警机制 ...................................... 11 5.2 加强与其他国家的合作与交流 ............................................ 12 5.3 建立健全各项法律法规体系 .............................................. 12 5.4发展独立的完善的货币政策，汇率制度和资本帐户 .......................... 12 5.5通过合理的政策组合降低资本外流的冲击 .................................. 12 5.6打造良好的国内投资环境 ................................................ 12

6结语 .................................................... 13 参考文献 .................................................. 13 致谢 ....................................................... 1

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当前国内资本外流的原因分析及应对研究

杜佳维

南京信息工程大学滨江学院会计系，江苏 南京 210044

摘要：2015年第一季度 的资本外流达到了1590亿美元，为17年来最大。第二季度更是突破了2240亿美元。第三季度资本外流为床记录的2250亿美元。据可靠估计，过去一年的资本总流出达到了8000亿美元。本文通过从资本外流定义，背景，形成原因以及影响的分析入手，对我国目前所面临的资本外流形势做了研究。之后，本文对我国资本流出的主要途径和产生影响及应对研究作了详细分析。

关键词：资本外流；强势美元；藏汇于民；人民币国际化；非法转移

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Reason analysis and Countermeasures of current domestic

capital outflow

dujiawei

Binjiang College of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology ，NUIST，Nanjing 210044，China

Abstract：Capital outflows in the first quarter of 2015 reached $159 billion, the largest in 17 years. In the second quarter, it broke through $224 billion. Capital outflows in the third quarter were $225 billion for the bed. According to reliable estimates, the total outflow of capital in the past year will reach $800 billion. Through from the capital outflow definition, background, formation causes and effects analysis of of our country facing the capital outflow situation to do research. After the detailed analysis of the influence of our main way of capital outflows and produce and countermeasures.

Key words：Capital outflow; strong dollar; Tibetan and foreign exchange; RMB internationalization; illegal transfer

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