SSCI论文-高铁旅游效应(5)

(0.6) (8.86) (-0.123) (4.08) (4.04).

Specifically, from January 2008 to December 2009:

log(Yt) = 2.6431 + 0.64601log(Xt) – 0.00154CPIt + 0.12643AR(4).From January 2010 to December 2011:

log(Yt) = 2.6431 + 0.70232log(Xt) – 0.00154CPIt + 0.12643AR(4).All of the β values are significant at 0.05 level. Therefore, the goodness-of-fitindices are achieved satisfactorily, and the proposed model is confirmed.Domestictourism receipts in Guangdong and Hunan provinces from January2008 to December 2011 can be validly accounted for by the disposable incomeof the domestic tourists, the CPI level in the two provinces, as well as theoperation of the high-speed railway. For Guangdong, before the operation ofthe high-speed railway (D = 0), an increase of 0.70817% in domestic tourismreceipts is recorded for every 1% growth in the disposable income of thedomestic tourists; after the operation of the high-speed railway (D = 1), withevery 1% surge of disposable income, there is a rise of 0.75754% of domestic

Impacts of the high-speed train on China’s tourism demand165

tourism receipts. In terms of Hunan province, before the operation of the high-speed railway (D = 0), an increase of 0.64601% in domestic tourism receiptsis recorded for every 1% growth in the disposable income of domestic tourists;after the operation of the high-speed railway (D = 1), with every 1% surge ofdisposable income, there is a rise of 0.70232% of domestic tourism receipts.Hence, the high-speed railway has been proved to render significantimprovementon the domestic tourism receipts in Guangdong and Hunanprovinces, while the domestic tourism income in Hubei province has benefitedlittle from the high-speed railway.

Discussion and implications

The high-speed railway is one of the few public projects in which so manyeconomic, political and environmental stakes are combined (Masson and Petiot,2009). This study takes a systematic econometric approach to analyse thetourism impacts of a typical high-speed railway in south China, making its duecontribution to theoretical and practical elaborations on the tourismimplicationsof the high-speed railway. Taking cognizance of the scale ofdevelopmentof the high-speed railway in China, such elaborations may wellassume significance at a global level. First, the results of this study empiricallyecho those of previous research proposing a positive relationship betweentransportationand tourism development (Prideaux, 2000; Pan, 2005). In thecases of Guangdong and Hunan provinces since the end of 2009 considerableeffects on local domestic tourism receipts have been detected from the operationof the high-speed railway. Such effects become all the more pronounced whenthe respective characteristics of the two provinces are taken into account, withGuangdong a traditional power player in China’s tourism development andHunan a less developed inland region in which tourism has begun to prosperonly recently. In this sense, the impact of the high-speed railway are widespreadand profound, benefiting destinations with varying infrastructure conditionsand stages of development. In fact, comparing the specific impact, greatergrowth is recorded in Hunan than in Guangdong, thus consolidating previoustheoretical discussions that recommend a greater leverage of transportationdevelopment for less developed destinations (Palhares, 2003). There have alsobeen reports that destinations in the two provinces that are not on the railwayroute have been benefiting from the spill-over effects of the high-speed railway,with some achieving a growth of 100% in tourism receipts after the railwaystarted to operate.Meanwhile, the profound tourism influence of the high-speed railway can bereflected in the peculiarities of the tourism products in the two provinces.Guangdong, as the epicentre of manufacturing industries and gateway forneighbouring Southeast Asian source markets, is primarily characterized bybusiness, vacationing and cultural tourism products, while natural scenery andethnic minority-based products are the dominant ‘selling points’ for Hunan.Our observations of the effects of the high-speed railway on local domestictourism receipts, therefore, are consistent with the postulations of Hall (2000)and Dallen (2007) that transportation can contribute to the optimization oftourism product structures and enhance the overall attractiveness of the broader

166TOURISM ECONOMICS

destination. Particularly, since tourists from Guangdong have been thetraditionalleading source market for Hunan (Huang, 2011), the high-speedrailway has brought new opportunities for inter-destination cooperation andintegration, as noted by Lew and McKercher (2002).From a consumer’s perspective, the results of this study indicate that thehigh-speed railway has stimulated demand for travel, which is described by Hu(2010) as a facilitator in the decision making and consumer behaviour stages.The effects of the high-speed railway on tourists have been most evident in theshortening of travel time, from 11 hours to 3 hours from Wuhan to Guangzhou.The removal of the time restraint has led to a diversification of tourists’ travelmodes, especially with the growing popularity of weekend short-haul themedtours. Further eviedence of this is the stiff competition posed by the high-speedrail to the airline industry along the route, and the response of the airlines,which included lowering prices, greater flexibility in flight schedules and,ultimately, connection packages with the high-speed trips. All this means awider range of choices for the tourist and may have a profound influence onmany aspects of their ‘travel career’ beyond increased spending. In addition,considering the relatively high prices of the high-speed tickets (at aroundRMB450 (US$1 = RMB6.2) per person per trip for Wuhan to Guangzhouagainst RMB330 for a normal speed train), it can be anticipated that the high-speed railway has become a tourist attraction in its own right.Furthermore, this study has identified limited impacts of the high-speedrailway on domestic tourism receipts of Hubei province. This finding isunderpinnedby the argument of Masson and Petiot (2009) that the effects ofthe high-speed railway are unbalanced and even polarized. The most convincingrationale for this finding is the small number of high-speed railway stops inHubei – three, compared to four in Guangdong and eight in Hunan. Thesynergistic effects of the high-speed rail are less articulated. In addition, exceptfor the capital city of Wuhan, which is a regional metropolitan centre, Hubeiprovince is primarily characterized by second-tier destinations that depend onnatural scenery. Thus, there may be polarization repercussions of the high-speedrailway between node destinations along the high-speed route and the moreperipheral ones, especially the rural areas. Meanwhile, for destinations relianton ticket income from homogenous tourist attractions such as natural landscape,tourist visitation may be siphoned off by the high-speed railway through thereduction of overnight stays. However, it should be mentioned here that thehigh-speed railway may have affected general tourism development in Hubeiat the current stage, but that positive impacts may be manifest in the longer-term.In addition to concurring with existing theoretical elaborations and high-lighting some new findings, the results of this study also have practicalimplications for the development of the high-speed railway in China,particularlyfrom a tourism perspective. After the exponential growth inconstructionand operation over the past decade, the high-speed railway hasbeen the subject of heated debate among people from all walks of life withregard to its economic and social impacts. The findings of this study, althoughlimited to the tourism field, provide solid evidence for the positive effects ofthe high-speed railway on the development of an industry that is assumingrising significance in the Chinese economy, thereby contributing to better

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