人民币均衡汇率的估计(12)

人民币均衡汇率的估计

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An Estimation of the Equilibrium RMB Exchange Rate

Zetian Wang and Yang Yao

National School of Development, China Center for Economic Research

Peking University

Abstract: We estimate the equilibrium RMB exchange rate with the enhanced purchasing power parity approach but go beyond it by incorporating the effects of structural change into the estimation of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Based on the theoretical and empirical findings of Wang and Yao (2008), we set out with our estimation based on the premise that structural change dampens Balassa-Samuelson effect. Using the share of rural population to measure structural change and a sample of 184 economies for the period 1974 to 2007, we find moderate rates of undervaluation of the RMB compared with other results in the literature. In particular, RMB was undervalued by 23% in 2005, 20% in 2006, and 16% in 2007. Various robustness tests support our results.

Keywords: Enhanced purchasing power parity; Exchange rates; structural change; Currency misalignment JEL: C23 C53 F31

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